Salisbury, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

755
FXUS62 KGSP 060659
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Several storm systems moving across the area will allow for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms through this weekend with a few
possibly becoming strong to severe, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. Unsettled weather will stick around through the
middle of next week as a cold front stalls in/near the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday: Nearly zonal flow in place for the near
term, with a mid-level weakness pushing through the pattern from the
Central Plains toward the Southern Appalachians today atop a low-
amplitude ridge over the western Gulf/Southern Plains. The coastal
low that brought the cooler temperatures and cloudiness the past
couple of days will lift out of the area, and with its exit, we
should expect markedly different conditions today with much warmer
temperatures as weak downsloping behind the surface boundary,
slightly higher thicknesses and increased insolation all combine to
result in a good 10+ degrees warmer than yesterday especially east
of the mountains where there was more cloudiness yesterday, and a
handful of degrees above normal.

With the increased sunshine and return to a typical (above typical)
summertime regime, expect afternoon destabilization with SBCAPEs
increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg, depending on which model you choose.
As the mid-level weakness moves toward the area this afternoon,
convective initiation over the mountains will blow off toward the
Piedmont, with hints of a leftover MCS approaching the TN/NC state
line after sunset as the shortwave nears. SPC Marginal for Day 1 is
reasonable for most of the area, with the Slight nudging into
extreme western zones depending on how far east across the TN Valley
the more organized convection is able to sustain itself. Isolated
severe certainly not out of the question but best deep layer shear
remains to the west for the near-term.

Increasing moisture tonight in the warm sector ahead of the short-
term system will lead to much warmer and muggy overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 AM Friday: An unsettled pattern will continue into the
weekend with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.
A stout upper ridge will be centered from northern Mexico across the
Gulf Coast and much of the Gulf itself. On the poleward side of the
ridge, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within a belt of
westerlies will be quickly pushing out of the Central Plains and
into the Ohio River Valley and Appalachians by Saturday night.
Forcing from the waves will help to instigate several upstream
convective complexes across the Deep South and portions of the
Tennessee Valley. With time, this activity will push towards the
Southern Appalachians by late Saturday afternoon into the evening
hours. Forecast confidence lowers with regards to where this occurs
as it will be dictated by convection today and resulting mesoscale
boundaries that are left behind. CAM guidance is also notorious for
poor handling of summer time MCS patterns and often struggles
considerably as to where/when convective complexes initiate and
propagate. With that being said, a conditional severe weather threat
will be possible across the entire area as the parameter space will
easily be supportive of MCS maintenance into the region. Surface-
based instability is progged around 1500-2000 J/kg with around 40
kts of deep-layer vertical wind shear within the westerly flow
regime. IF an upstream MCS were to track into the area a threat for
damaging winds would be probable, however the forecast could remain
rather quiet if any MCS track just misses the area to the south.

Heading into Sunday, a large closed upper low is forecast to drop
into the Northern Plains with a lead shortwave trough lifting across
the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. An attendant surface low will
slide across Indiana and Ohio with a surface cold front dropping
through the Mid-South and into Kentucky. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia ahead of the front and a couple strong
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Shear will be much weaker,
however, and will generally preclude a threat for organized severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 234 AM Friday: Unsettled weather is expected to persist into
next week with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The
previously mentioned advancing cold front will try to push into the
area on Monday, but how far it progresses remains uncertain at this
time range. Guidance is in generally good agreement that the
boundary will stall in or near the area with perhaps a lull in
activity on Monday. The forecast turns wet again through the rest of
the period as guidance depicts the boundary lifting back across the
area and then stalling as flow weakens and upper forcing wanes. This
will keep at least scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Several weak waves later in the
week may enhance coverage further.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to IFR cigs are spreading across the
area as low-level moisture expands from the east, with mountain
valley fog/low stratus also increasing in extent. Outside of the
mountain valleys (where earlier rainfall will allow restrictions to
sock KAVL in to VLIFR), mixing continues to favor the low stratus
over the fog for KCLT/KHKY, but an area of mid-level cloudiness may
inhibit lower cloud development for the Upstate sites. Rapid
improvement with sunrise. Continued PROB30 for all but KCLT and KAND
for aftn/eve TSRA coverage. Lgt/vrb winds through the late overnight
hours will pick up 5-10kt out of the SW to W this afternoon.

Outlook: An active period is expected with scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms each day along with the potential for
late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...TDP